Late in the afternoon of August 15, CBP released its latest statistics on migrant encounters at the southwest border. In July, the agency encountered nearly 200,000 foreigners on the US-Mexico line, including more than 181,500 illegal migrants who were apprehended there by Border Patrol. Officers have already set a new annual record for arrests in fiscal year 2022 – which is even more discouraging given that there are still two months left in the fiscal year and things are about to get worse. .
Two record years in a row. In the first 10 months of fiscal year 2022, Border Patrol agents at the Southwest Border arrested 1,816,353 aliens who entered the United States illegally. That beats the old record for arrests, set in fiscal year 2021, when officers caught 1,643,679 illegal entrants.
Border Patrol provides Southwest border arrest statistics dating back to the Eisenhower administration in fiscal year 1960. The previous peak before Biden during this 62-year period was in fiscal year 2000 , when Border Patrol agents captured 1,643,679 foreigners who had entered the southwestern border illegally. .
Contrast that with the situation at the border under the Obama-Biden administration.
Between fiscal year 2010 and fiscal year 2016, arrests at the Southwest Border never exceeded 500,000, and in fiscal years 2011, 2012, and 2015, arrests never exceeded 400,000. In d In other words, 269,775 more illegal entrants were apprehended by officers at our border with Mexico this fiscal year than were apprehended in the four fiscal years between fiscal year 2010 and fiscal year 2013.
These numbers are worse than they appear. More than 98.2 percent of migrants apprehended in fiscal year 2000 were Mexican nationals, almost all adult males, who could be quickly screened and removed or returned within about eight hours.
In contrast, only 34.7% of foreigners apprehended by Border Patrol during this exercise were Mexican nationals. Worse still, only 25% of those captured by agents on the US-Mexico line are from the “Northern Triangle” countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.
The remaining 732,661, or more than 40% of those apprehended in this fiscal year, are “long-distance migrants” who have come to the United States to enter illegally from further afield than ever before. “Biden’s Border Fiasco,” as Bloomberg Opinion’s editorial board dubbed it, is now a global affair.
Title 42 Deletions are decreasing further and are about to drop to zero. The Biden administration has attempted to end CDC orders mandating the deportation of illegal border entrants, which were issued under Title 42 of the US code in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
A federal district court judge ordered the termination of Title 42, and while the administration appeals that order, it is expected to comply with it in the interim.
Biden’s DHS is increasingly honoring that order only in the breach. Only 40% of foreigners who were apprehended by Border Patrol on the Southwest Border in July were deported under Title 42, compared to 47.7% in June and 62.3% for the entire fiscal year 2021. In contrast, Trump deported more than 87% of migrants. subject to Title 42.
The administration is appealing this injunction, which means that Title 42’s days are numbered. DHS estimates that after Title 42, up to 18,000 foreigners per day will enter illegally, three times more than in July. Border Patrol agents are already too overwhelmed to stop drugs and migrants who didn’t want to be caught (more than 800,000 illegal entrants managed to evade agents under Biden). It will get exponentially worse, and soon all Americans will pay the price for this fiasco.
DHS hides version numbers. Unless Congress gets involved, we are unlikely to know how many of the approximately 109,000 aliens who were captured by Border Patrol in July and not deported under Title 42 have been released in the United States.
Indeed, DHS is no longer required to publish monthly status reports on border releases, which was ordered by District Court Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk as part of his injunction in Texas vs. Biden.
Texas is a lawsuit brought by the states of Texas and Missouri to force the Biden administration to continue the Trump-era Migrant Protection Protocols (MPPs), better known as “Stay in Mexico.” The court injunction prevented DHS from terminating the program.
In June, the Supreme Court ruled that Judge Kacsmaryk could not enjoin the MPP’s dismissal, and on August 8 the judge was forced to reverse his order. Not only does this end Remain in Mexico (for now), but it also means DHS is no longer required to reveal how many aliens the agency releases in violation of an old congressional requirement. 119 years that all these migrants should be detained.
The lack of transparency is a big flaw of an administration that had promised to “bring transparency and truth back to government”. DHS tried to hide the scale of the border disaster from voters. The order in Texas turned on a light, but that light is off (for now).
More than 1.129 million aliens met by CBP on the southwest border had been released to the United States by Biden through the end of June, a huge eye backwards for the White House. Congress could compel DHS to provide those numbers, but the border is a major vulnerability for Democrats who control the House and Senate ahead of the midterm elections in November, and they likely won’t ask.
A strategist warns Democrats about immigration. Proof of these last two points can be found in an article by venerable Democratic strategist Stanley B. Greenberg in the August 3 “progressive” magazine The American Prospect.
Democrats face strong headwinds heading into the midterms, but Greenberg argues the party has an opportunity to right the ship, bolstered by the Supreme Court’s June ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Org. (which canceled the constitutional right to abortion Roe vs. Wade), and a series of what Greenberg calls “gun massacres.”
Abortion rights and gun restrictions play out in key Democratic constituencies and energize the party base, he says. Among the issues on which the party votes poorly, however, are crime and immigration. Based on his own research, Greenberg explains:
Much of the Democratic base accepts Trump’s dire warning that America has never been more prone to crime, open borders, disrespect for the police and lack of pride in the America.
Democrats have issues at their base that impact turnout for blacks and Hispanics and the vote of Asian American voters (AAPI). In this survey exercise, I asked voters to choose between a Democratic message, with its hugely popular policies, and a Republican message, embodying Trump’s words to make America great again, which led to crime and at the borders and ended with the police.
An astonishing 28% of black people chose the America First message. But more alarmingly, 45% of AAPI voters and 47% of Hispanics did too.
Note that Greenberg does not tell his fellow supporters to improve border security. Rather, his implicit message is that Democrats are avoiding the issue, as he explicitly tells them to do on crime and welfare.
As Greenberg’s analysis suggests, these record numbers at the frontiers provide an opportunity for the GOP in November. It will require Republicans to demonstrate how they will force the administration to gain “operational control” of the southwest border, something they have so far failed to do.
While Republican leaders have offered proposals to address border wall construction, hiring agents, MPP and Title 42, asylum reform and unaccompanied foreign children, and to mandate E-Verify , the GOP will need to prove (1) that it is prepared to choose border security over constituencies that desire cheap labor and (2) that they have a strategy for putting those proposals into law in order to win over undecided voters.
On border barriers, a defeated Republican effort to change the “Cutting Inflation Act” (a bill Greenberg is suggesting to Democrats) paves the way for a Republican-controlled Congress to force their hand of Biden. That hand holds a veto pen, however, so Republicans in Congress must be ready to use the “power of the stock market” to bring the border into line, if voters give them the chance in November.
Obama versus Biden. In 96 months under Obama, Border Patrol on the southwest border apprehended just over 3.329 million illegal migrants. In the first 18 months of the Biden administration, apprehensions approach 3.191 million and will easily eclipse Obama’s total by September. Biden’s policies are to blame, and if anything, the border disaster is going to get much, much worse before it gets better.